This year, US Rep Michael Baumgartner’s campaign has brought in over two-and-a-half times as much cash as his opponent. As of October 14, federal election filings show Baumgartner raised more than $2.2 million, while his Democratic challenger Carmela Conroy lags with only about $844,000. Baumgartner holds a large fundraising lead, and yet in the final weeks of the race, outside groups have stepped in to support him financially.
In 2024, Baumgartner defeated Conroy with about 60% of the vote for this same seat. During that race, he raised about $1.4 million.
In total, the candidates for Washington’s 5th Congressional District have raised more than $3.6 million, including primary candidates, according to OpenSecrets, a research group tracking money in politics. Baumgartner won 47% of the vote as the sole Republican candidate on the August primary ballot.
Since October 21, more than $157,000 in independent expenditures has gone toward supporting Baumgartner, according to 24- and 48-hour reports filed with the FEC — the first outside spending for Baumgartner thus far. This includes more than $120,000 spent by the Congressional Leadership Fund in support of Baumgartner, and $25,000 spent by MAGA Inc., a pro-Trump super PAC, in support of the Republican incumbent.
Washington State University political science professor Travis Ridout described the late spending as “an insurance policy,” given national polls that may have put this race on the radar.
“There’s a lot heavier Democratic competition out there than maybe people expected,” Ridout said, which has led to interest in “second and even third-tier races” to protect Republican incumbents.
“This district was not one that they thought would be competitive,” Conroy’s fundraising director Ryan Kehl said. “So they never made any ad reservations here, and late in the game had to come in with these six-figure buys, which we think is a promising sign.”
However, spending in the district has not reached the frenzy seen in other races, where millions in independent expenditures have flooded the playing field, Kehl noted.
Baumgartner did not respond to a request for comment on outside spending.
Throughout the race, more than $655,000 in independent expenditures from Together For Working People and Fire House PAC has gone toward opposing Baumgartner — much of it pre-primary — and more than $120,000 combined from MAGA Inc. and Fire House PAC was spent against Conroy, according to FEC reports. No outside spending in support of Conroy has been reported.
During the primary, Fire House PAC backed independent candidate Nate Powell, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars in support of him. The PAC’s main donor is Contours Inc., a dark money group that has spent millions on Democratic and independent campaigns across the country — including Texas Democrat James Talarico’s run. But when it came time for the general election, these groups did not throw money behind Conroy.
As of October 14, Baumgartner has spent more than $1.7 million, and Conroy’s campaign has spent more than $763,000. Both candidates have spent heavily on advertising. Baumgartner’s campaign poured more than $568,000 into media buys — with more than $248,000 spent after the primary — and Conroy spent nearly $225,000 on media buys after the primary. Since July, Conroy has also spent more than $171,000 on TV and cable advertisements.
Political action committees, or PACs, have given Baumgartner around a quarter of his total fundraising. To date, AIPAC has given Baumgartner just over $67,000 in direct donations and individual contributions earmarked through the PAC.
According to Western Washington University professor Todd Donovan, who studies public opinion, the funding might mean that whoever is making donation decisions views the race as “moderately competitive” or is simply rewarding someone for loyalty.
“It’s not really about the money affecting the outcome of the race,” Donovan said, noting that the funding might have more of an impact in a less conservative district. “On the west side of Washington, when people hear about AIPAC, they freak out and that’s a stain against a candidate.”
In October, AIPAC announced that it would no longer endorse candidates, or contribute direct PAC donations or earmarked funds to their campaigns.
Baumgartner has also received support of $2,500 or less each from PACs affiliated with technology companies Anthropic, Quanta Services, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta. Baumgartner has sponsored legislation regulating AI data center development.
Meanwhile, PACs have contributed a smaller share of Conroy’s fundraising. She has received $10,000 from the United Association of Union Plumbers and Pipefitters, her largest single donor.
Nearly three-quarters of Conroy’s itemized individual donations as of October 14 came from those who listed themselves as not employed or retired, according to FEC filings. Retirees gave about $537,000 to Baumgartner, and donors who did not list an occupation provided his campaign another $180,000.
Donovan said this isn’t surprising, given the financial flexibility that older demographics are more likely to have.
“Youth don’t donate. Younger people don’t have the resources, for the most part, to donate to campaigns like older folks do,” Donovan said.
However, this also does make tracking finance in races more frustrating, as it is hard to figure out which sector or industry the money is coming from, he added.
Through mid-October, Baumgartner’s campaign had boasted a slightly larger share of funds that came from out of state, at around 17%. Approximately 10% of Conroy’s funds come from out-of-state donors, according to a RANGE analysis of FEC-processed data and raw campaign filings.
Money was still coming in for both campaigns in the final week before Election Day.
Conroy’s campaign received a $5,000 donation from the Laborers’ International Union of North America PAC, among others. From October 28 to 30, Baumgartner’s campaign received more than $15,000 in donations, including $3,500 from America’s First PAC and $5,000 from Working for Ohio, a leadership PAC associated with US Vice President J.D. Vance.
